Table of Contents
Key Insights
- Renters in the San Gabriel Valley, Southeast LA, and parts of the San Fernando Valley are more likely to transition into homeownership.
- Homeowners in South LA, parts of Southeast LA, and parts of the Antelope Valley are more likely to become renters.
- Neighborhoods with high homeownership rates, larger household sizes, and more Asian residents drive renter-to-owner transitions, while neighborhoods with high U.S.-born, Black/African American, and fewer college-educated residents drive owner-to-renter shifts.
- Neighborhoods with pronounced “churning”—where both renters and owners frequently transition—cluster in Harbor, Southeast LA, northern San Fernando Valley, and southeast San Gabriel Valley; other areas show greater stability.
Introduction
Understanding which neighborhoods are more likely to see their current residents shift between renting and owning (referred to as “housing status” below) is crucial for anticipating patterns of neighborhood change, informing equitable public policy, and guiding community investment. To provide new insights into these potential shifts, we partnered with LABarometer at USC Dornsife to analyze data from its county-representative survey alongside the 2023 American Community Survey, using analytical modeling to estimate the likelihood that renters or homeowners will switch housing status across LA neighborhoods.
This chapter reveals where in the county these transitions are most likely to occur, lays out the neighborhood factors that influence them, and categorizes communities based on their overall stability or potential for “churning.” By linking individual and neighborhood characteristics to these transition patterns, we highlight the shifting landscape of residents’ housing status in Los Angeles and showcase the neighborhoods leading these transformations.
Which LA neighborhoods are likely to see housing status transitions among their current residents?
We partnered with LABarometer, a research center at the USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research. Since 2019, LABarometer has conducted a bi-annual, county-representative survey, known as the LABarometer Panel, to understand the socioeconomic conditions of the county and the well-being of Angelenos.
To understand where people in Los Angeles County are most likely to transition between renting and owning, we apply a statistical model to analyze survey responses from the LA Barometer. Then, we use data from the 2023 American Community Survey to extrapolate our findings to the entire county.
First, we calculate how likely each household is to switch—either from renting to owning or the other way around. Next, we map these results across all LA neighborhoods. We focus on the top 10% of renters and homeowners most likely to change status and count how many households in each neighborhood fall into this group.
Using these counts, we sort neighborhoods into five categories ranging from “Very Low” to “Very High” likelihood of switching. It is important to note that while our results tell us how likely people are to switch between renting and owning, they do not show if they actually move to a different neighborhood, nor do they tell us whether these changes are voluntary. For more information on the research methodology, please visit the technical appendix.
Neighborhoods with higher shares of renters who will likely transition to homeowners concentrate in the eastern parts of the San Gabriel Valley and Southeast LA, along with a few more areas in the western parts of the San Fernando Valley.
- Neighborhoods in the San Gabriel Valley (SGV) will likely see many of their renters becoming homeowners, especially around West Covina and spreading toward San Gabriel and Monterey Park. The majority—32 out of 46 neighborhoods in the SGV—show a very high rate of renters moving into homeownership.
- In Southeast Los Angeles, 16 neighborhoods exhibit a high or very high share of renters likely to become homeowners, with Norwalk, Cerritos, and Artesia standing out as key areas. These neighborhoods create a noticeable corridor that connects with the West Covina cluster.
- A third major area with high potential for renters becoming homeowners is in the southern San Fernando Valley. This locus includes the neighborhoods of Arleta, Granada Hills, Lake View Terrace, Pacoima, San Fernando, Shadow Hills, Sun Valley, and Sylmar.
- When considering neighborhood population size and density, Glendale, Long Beach, Koreatown, and West Covina are expected to see the largest total number of renters making the transition to homeownership.
Neighborhoods with higher shares of homeowners who will likely transition to renters mainly cluster in South LA and extend into Southeast LA; another smaller cluster exists in the north of the county.
- In South LA neighborhoods, homeowners may experience a substantial shift from homeownership to renting, with 19 out of 28 neighborhoods showing high transition rates.
- This trend is not limited to South LA. It extends into Southeast LA and the San Gabriel Valley, where many neighborhoods along the east corridor—from Montebello to Pomona—are also hinting at high levels of homeowners moving to rentals.
- In addition, Lancaster, Palmdale, and Northwest Palmdale in the Antelope Valley make up another key cluster with a high concentration of owner-to-renter transitions. Given their large numbers of existing homeowners, both Lancaster and Palmdale are likely to see a greater volume of residents switching from owning to renting their homes.
- While Long Beach does not have a particularly high share of homeowners making this transition, its large population and housing density imply that the total number of transitions is still considerable.
Neighborhoods vary in their mix of homeowners and renters, with some places dominated by owners and others by renters. By looking at changes in both directions—from renting to owning and from owning to renting—we can see how likely it is that people in these neighborhoods will move from one housing status to the other.
- The Harbor and Southeast region features a concentration of neighborhoods with high rates of anticipated shift, particularly around Harbor Gateway, West Compton, Compton, Rancho Dominguez, and Norwalk.
- Another prominent cluster emerges in the San Gabriel Valley—including Covina, West Covina, West Puente Valley, La Puente, and Avocado Heights—where households are more likely to experience housing status changes.
- Northern parts of Los Angeles County also have neighborhoods where residents may likely experience changes in their housing status.
Neighborhood factors associated with renter and homeownership transitions
We now examine how a neighborhood’s demographic and socioeconomic characteristics influence whether local residents are likely to switch from renting to owning, or vice versa. We examine factors like age groups, racial and ethnic makeup, education, jobs, birthplace, household size, income, homeownership rate, and whether adults are living with their children. We use statistical analysis to pinpoint which neighborhood features are most strongly linked to residents making renter-to-owner and owner-to-renter shifts. Detailed technical results and interpretation guides are available in the appendix.
Renter-to-homeowner shifts
Renters are most likely to become homeowners in neighborhoods where homeownership is already prevalent, households are larger, and there are more Asian residents. Neighborhoods with fewer children and fewer residents aged 45 to 54 also see higher rates of renter-to-owner shifts. Transitions to homeownership also increase in neighborhoods with more residents who have some college education, like an associate’s degree. On the other hand, a higher number of college graduates, by itself, doesn’t lead to more renters becoming homeowners.
The chart below highlights the neighborhood characteristics that heavily influence the odds that renters will become homeowners. The appendix outlines the calculation steps taken to estimate how changes in neighborhood characteristics affect housing transitions.
Neighborhoods with a high homeownership rate (i.e., in the top quarter of all neighborhoods) have a 35% greater share of renters likely to become homeowners, compared to the countywide average, than neighborhoods with a low homeownership rate (i.e., in the bottom quarter of the neighborhoods). Similarly, neighborhoods with a high share of Asian residents have a higher rate of renters transitioning to homeownership, amounting to about one quarter of the countywide average, compared to neighborhoods with a low share of Asian residents. In contrast, neighborhoods with larger populations of children (under 18) and adults aged 45 to 54 see a decline in the share of renters likely to transition. For instance, neighborhoods with a high share of children and youth experience an estimated decrease of over 10%, compared to the countywide average, in the rate of renters moving into homeownership, relative to neighborhoods with a low share in that age group.
Homeowner-to-renter shifts
Neighborhoods with high rates of homeownership, a larger proportion of U.S.-born residents, and greater shares of Black/African American and Asian populations are more likely to see homeowners become renters. Younger neighborhoods—especially those with more residents under 18 and adults aged 25 to 44—show a stronger tendency for this shift from owning to renting.
Education level makes a difference. Neighborhoods with more adults who have attended some college or earned a college degree have fewer homeowners likely to become renters, compared to areas where most adults have only a high school diploma or less.
We follow a similar approach to assess how changes in neighborhood characteristics—from high to low values—impact the share of homeowners likely to transition into renting. Homeownership has again the strongest positive influence on the likelihood of homeowners transitioning to renting, followed by the proportion of U.S.-born residents and the proportion of Asian residents in the neighborhood. For instance, neighborhoods with a high percentage of U.S.-born residents have a 13% higher share of homeowners likely to transition to renting compared to the countywide average, than neighborhoods with a low share of U.S.-born residents. In contrast, neighborhoods with a high proportion of residents with a college degree show a substantial decline in the share of homeowners likely to become renters—the estimated decrease is greater than half the countywide average.
Which LA neighborhoods exhibit more pronounced churning?
We want to identify neighborhoods where both renters and homeowners are more likely to change their housing status, i.e., neighborhoods with more pronounced churning. To this end, we group neighborhoods as “high,” “moderate,” or “low” churning rates, based on the proportion of renters or homeowners likely to move between renting and owning. This classification allows us to map the mix of housing status transitions in different LA neighborhoods. For clarity, we focus the analysis on four neighborhood profiles:
- High transition for both renters and owners
- High for renters / Low for owners
- Low for renters / High for owners
- Low transition for both groups. 1
Our analysis identifies 35 neighborhoods where a significant share of households are likely to change their renting or owning status in either direction—an indication of pronounced neighborhood churning. The table presents the number of neighborhoods in each type:
| Neighborhood churning category | Number of neighborhoods | Share of neighborhoods |
| High renter and owner transition | 35 | 13.7% |
| High renter transition, low owner transition | 7 | 2.7% |
| Low renter transition, high owner transition | 18 | 7.0% |
| Low renter and owner transition | 47 | 18.4% |
| Moderate transition or unclassified | 149 | 58.2% |
| Total | 256 | 100% |
Note: Neighborhoods with fewer than 172 renter families or fewer than 413 owner families (i.e., the bottom 1/20th of each distribution) are not classified into any housing status transition group.
- Dual-direction shifts—where many renters and owners are likely to shift their status—are concentrated in Harbor, Southeast LA, the northern San Fernando Valley, and the southeast San Gabriel Valley.
- Most neighborhoods with high rates of homeowners becoming renters—and fewer renters becoming homeowners—are in South LA. Hawthorne, Lennox, and Del Aire in the South Bay, along with Florence-Firestone and Huntington Park in Southeast LA, show similar trends.
- Coastal South Bay neighborhoods, much of Central Los Angeles, and the Westside show relative stability for both renters and homeowners. There are also stable pockets in the Verdugos and the eastern San Gabriel Valley.
- Neighborhoods with higher renter transitions but stable homeownership are found in the northwest San Fernando Valley and parts of the South Bay.
Conclusion
Our analysis reveals that people’s odds of moving between renting and owning a home differ sharply across neighborhoods in Los Angeles County, influenced by demographic differences and economic conditions. Areas such as the San Gabriel Valley, Southeast LA, and parts of the San Fernando Valley emerge as hotspots where many renters are likely to move into homeownership. In contrast, neighborhoods in South LA and the Antelope Valley are more likely to see homeowners shift toward renting. These changes reflect not just regional housing pressures but also deeper shifts in neighborhood composition, education, and workforce dynamics.
Understanding where and why these transitions are likely to happen can help policymakers, housing advocates, and local leaders better target resources and interventions. By identifying the neighborhoods at highest risk of housing status churning, as well as those likely to remain stable, we are better equipped to support existing residents—whether renters or owners—through upcoming changes and to strengthen neighborhood stability and opportunity across LA County.
Contributors
- Authors
- Jorge De la Roca, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
- Wesley Miller, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
- Jiaqi Dong, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
- Research Team
- Evan Sandlin, LABarometer
- Kyla Thomas, LABarometer
- Cameron Yap, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
- Justin Culetu, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
- Devyani Ramamoorthy, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
- Joy Ndamukunda, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate
